More than 14% of American homeowners with a mortgage were either behind on their payments or in foreclosure at the end of September, a record-high for the ninth straight quarter and a problem that could threaten the U.S. economic recovery.
The Mortgage Bankers Association's report Thursday adds to fears that the housing market and broader recovery could be thwarted by the continuing surge in home loan defaults, especially as the unemployment rate keeps rising. Lost jobs, rather than the shady loans made during the housing boom, are now the main reason homeowners fall behind on their mortgages.
After three years of plunging prices, the housing market started to rebound this summer. While optimists hope the worst is over, pessimists say there are simply too many foreclosed properties that have yet to be dumped on the market and expect further price declines.
About 4 million U.S. homeowners were either in foreclosure or at least three months behind on their mortgage payments as of September, according to the mortgage bankers group. Even if a quarter of those borrowers are able to stay in their homes, "there's a lot of potential inventory coming into the market next year," said Jay Brinkmann, chief economist with the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Those foreclosures will push home prices downward, especially in the hardest-hit California and Florida cities, places that are also coping with soaring unemployment, he said.
The record-high foreclosure numbers are being driven by borrowers with traditional fixed-rate mortgages, rather than the shady subprime loans with adjustable rates that kicked off the mortgage crisis.
Fixed-rate loans made to so-called prime borrowers with good credit histories caused nearly 33% of new foreclosures in the July-September quarter, compared with 21% a year ago.
Subprime loans with adjustable rates have fallen to 16% of new foreclosures from 35% a year earlier.
Loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration also show increasing signs of trouble. More than 18% of FHA borrowers are at least one payment behind or in foreclosure.
Among states, the worst of the trouble is still concentrated in California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida, which accounted for 44% of new foreclosures in the country. Nearly 13% of all loans in Florida were in foreclosure, the highest in the U.S., followed by Nevada at more than 9%.
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